{"id":8104,"date":"2024-10-11T10:41:07","date_gmt":"2024-10-11T08:41:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/?p=8104"},"modified":"2025-10-29T10:52:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T09:52:16","slug":"prediktivni-modelace-v-marketingu-vypis-z-webinare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/prediktivni-modelace-v-marketingu-vypis-z-webinare\/","title":{"rendered":"Predikce v&nbsp;marketingu - jak pracovat s&nbsp;forecastingem"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p>Se z\u00e1\u0159\u00edm jsme se rozlou\u010dili ve&nbsp;velk\u00e9m stylu - na\u0161\u00edm prvn\u00edm webin\u00e1\u0159em! Lucie Pezlarov\u00e1, senior data scientist z&nbsp;Notina, spolu s&nbsp;na\u0161\u00edm Adamem \u0160ilhanem rozeb\u00edrali t\u00e9ma predikc\u00ed v&nbsp;marketingu. Vysv\u011btlili, jak s&nbsp;nimi pracovat, jak si nastavit o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a&nbsp;kdy je vhodn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti procesu predikce zautomatizovat. Pokud v\u00e1s toto t\u00e9ma zaj\u00edm\u00e1, m\u016f\u017eete si d\u00edky <a href=\"https:\/\/www.czechonlineexpo.cz\/\">Czech Online Expo<\/a> p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst hlavn\u00ed v\u00fdstupy z&nbsp;na\u0161eho webin\u00e1\u0159e.<br>\n<!--more--><\/p>\n<h3>K \u010demu slou\u017e\u00ed predikce?<\/h3>\n<p>D\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e s&nbsp;predikcemi za\u010dnete, ujist\u011bte se, \u017ee&nbsp;je vyu\u017eijete. Jedin\u011b tak d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl se do&nbsp;problematiky pou\u0161t\u011bt a&nbsp;investovat do&nbsp;n\u00ed \u010das.<\/p>\n<p>Dva nej\u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpady smyslupln\u00e9ho vyu\u017eit\u00ed predikc\u00ed:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>m\u00e1te pl\u00e1ny do&nbsp;budoucna. Nap\u0159\u00edklad chyst\u00e1te slevovou akci nebo p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed V\u00e1noce. Spr\u00e1vn\u00e1 predikce v\u00e1m umo\u017en\u00ed se adekv\u00e1tn\u011b p\u0159ipravit a&nbsp;zajistit si dostate\u010dn\u00e9 naskladn\u011bn\u00ed, logistiku a&nbsp;celkov\u00e9 kapacity.<\/li>\n<li>chcete si ov\u011b\u0159it r\u016fzn\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e. M\u016f\u017ee v\u00e1s t\u0159eba zaj\u00edmat, zda je v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 investovat do&nbsp;z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016f a&nbsp;nav\u00fd\u0161it tak jejich po\u010det. Nebo budete zji\u0161\u0165ovat, jestli v\u00e1\u0161 byznys bude ziskov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed s&nbsp;ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1klady a&nbsp;men\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016f. Predikce tak pom\u016f\u017eou naj\u00edt breakpoint, kter\u00fd byste necht\u011bli p\u0159es\u00e1hnout, nebo mohou nast\u00ednit o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd cashflow. Vyu\u017eijete je tak\u00e9 jako pomocn\u00edka pro d\u016fkladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpravu na&nbsp;o\u010dek\u00e1vanou akci.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3>Jak s&nbsp;predikcemi v&nbsp;marketingu za\u010d\u00edt a&nbsp;kam d\u00e1l?<\/h3>\n<p>Je dobr\u00e9 si predikce nejprve vyzkou\u0161et na&nbsp;mal\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech a&nbsp;prozkoumat, zda v\u00e1m n\u011bco p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed. Nemus\u00edme hned ze za\u010d\u00e1tku investovat do&nbsp;data science t\u00fdmu nebo se u\u010dit s&nbsp;Prophetem. \u00dapln\u011b sta\u010d\u00ed za\u010d\u00edt s&nbsp;expertn\u00edmi predikcemi nad Excelem.<\/p>\n<p>Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si na&nbsp;predikce vyhradit \u010das a&nbsp;ned\u011blat je za chodu.&nbsp; Zamyslete se nad t\u00edm, co chcete d\u011blat, co asi v\u00fdsledek ovliv\u0148uje, jak\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed je pro velikost byznysu z\u00e1kladn\u00ed a&nbsp;jakou maj\u00ed data periodu. Nap\u0159\u00edklad: chyst\u00e1te p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc slevovou akci a&nbsp;chcete v\u011bd\u011bt, co se stane, kdy\u017e v\u00e1m sice p\u0159ijde v\u00edc lid\u00ed, ale na&nbsp;produktech budete m\u00edt men\u0161\u00ed mar\u017ei. Je pro v\u00e1s potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed akce v\u00fdhodn\u00e1, nebo sp\u00ed\u0161&nbsp;ne?<\/p>\n<p>Dal\u0161\u00ed krok tohoto intuitivn\u00edho modelov\u00e1n\u00ed spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v&nbsp;ur\u010den\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00edho \u010dasov\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed. Jak dlouh\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed v\u00e1\u0161 byznys vy\u017eaduje? Jsou to dny, t\u00fddny, roky? Z&nbsp;v\u00e1mi zvolen\u00e9ho \u010dasov\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 perioda v&nbsp;datech. Pro m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed data je to ro\u010dn\u00ed perioda, pro denn\u00ed data obvykle t\u00fddenn\u00ed perioda. Perioda je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1, proto\u017ee p\u0159i modelov\u00e1n\u00ed predikc\u00ed mus\u00edte m\u00edt minim\u00e1ln\u011b dv\u011b periody z&nbsp;minulosti. Pokud chcete p\u0159edpov\u00eddat nast\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed t\u00fdden, pot\u0159ebujete data z&nbsp;posledn\u00edch dvou t\u00fddn\u016f a&nbsp;pokud modelujete p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok, pot\u0159ebujete 24 pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed z&nbsp;minulosti, tedy z&nbsp;dvou p\u0159edchoz\u00edch period.<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159i predikov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 br\u00e1t v&nbsp;potaz i&nbsp;trend, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pozorovateln\u00fd na&nbsp;del\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00ed. P\u0159i predikov\u00e1n\u00ed men\u0161\u00edch \u010dasov\u00fdch \u00fasek\u016f nemus\u00edte sez\u00f3nnosti d\u00e1vat tolik pozornosti, ale&nbsp;ur\u010dit\u011b nebude na&nbsp;\u0161kodu se pod\u00edvat, jak m\u011bs\u00edc nebo t\u00fdden, kter\u00fd predikujete, vypadaly v&nbsp;minulosti, proto\u017ee sezonalita m\u00e1 siln\u00fd lok\u00e1ln\u00ed vliv.<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159i tvorb\u011b predikc\u00ed si rozhodn\u011b&nbsp; nezapome\u0148te ve\u0161ker\u00e9 odhady sepsat. Ke&nbsp;v\u0161em p\u0159edpoklad\u016fm zapi\u0161te i&nbsp;jejich od\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00ed (pou\u017eit\u00e9 prediktory).<br>\nZap\u00ed\u0161ete si nap\u0159\u00edklad poskytnutou slevu, zm\u011bnu mar\u017ee, realizovanou kampa\u0148. Zp\u011btn\u011b si v\u00fdsledek zracionalizujete v\u017edycky. P\u0159ehledn\u00fd a&nbsp;detailn\u00ed z\u00e1pis v\u00e1m ale zejm\u00e9na do&nbsp;budoucna pom\u016f\u017ee zp\u0159esnit va\u0161i intuici.<\/p>\n<p>Pokud se chcete na&nbsp;va\u0161\u00ed predik\u010dn\u00ed cest\u011b posunout d\u00e1le, klidn\u011b m\u016f\u017eete z\u016fstat v&nbsp;Excelu. Nen\u00ed t\u0159eba vyhled\u00e1vat slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed programy. Excel ji\u017e disponuje spoustou AI dopl\u0148k\u016f, kter\u00e9 um\u00ed rychle predikovat. V\u011bt\u0161ina z&nbsp;nich dokonce pojme i&nbsp;trend a&nbsp;sez\u00f3nnost v&nbsp;datech. A\u0165 u\u017e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdm dopl\u0148k\u016fm v\u011b\u0159\u00edte, nebo ne, v\u017edy si je m\u016f\u017eete jednodu\u0161e zkontrolovat, a&nbsp;to pomoc\u00ed graf\u016f. Vizu\u00e1ln\u00ed podoba predikce v\u00e1m skrze porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s&nbsp;historick\u00fdmi daty uk\u00e1\u017ee, zda model n\u011bkam \u201cneulet\u011bl\u201d, ale z\u016fstal ve&nbsp;va\u0161\u00ed realit\u011b.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>V Excelu d\u00e1l m\u016f\u017eete vyu\u017e\u00edt nap\u0159\u00edklad tyto addony pro predikce:<br>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/appsource.microsoft.com\/en-us\/product\/office\/WA200006429?tab=Overview\">timegpt<\/a><br>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/appsource.microsoft.com\/en-us\/product\/office\/wa200001608?tab=overview\">TIM forecasting<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Neust\u00e1l\u00e1 iterace a&nbsp;dola\u010fov\u00e1n\u00ed predik\u010dn\u00edho procesu v\u00e1s m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159iv\u00e9st k&nbsp;prvn\u00edm \u00fasp\u011bch\u016fm. S&nbsp;nimi m\u016f\u017eete j\u00edt za veden\u00edm pro buy-in na&nbsp;z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed podpory. T\u0159eba ve&nbsp;form\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed t\u00fdmu nebo finan\u010dn\u00ed dotace na&nbsp;v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed projekt. Pamatujte si v\u0161ak, \u017ee&nbsp;predikce samy o&nbsp;sob\u011b nevedou k&nbsp;roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed prodeje, ale k&nbsp;zefektivn\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f, a\u0165 u\u017e finan\u010dn\u00edch, nebo lidsk\u00fdch.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_8116\" style=\"width: 1034px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/webinar-uvod.png\"><img srcset=\"https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/webinar-uvod-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/webinar-uvod-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/webinar-uvod-1024x576.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 300px) 1024px, (min-width: 150px) 300px, 150px\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8116\" class=\"wp-image-8116 size-large\" alt=\"Predikce v marketingu: Jak pracovat s forecastingem a nesp\u00e1lit se\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\"><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-8116\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Predikce v&nbsp;marketingu: Jak pracovat s&nbsp;forecastingem a&nbsp;nesp\u00e1lit se<\/p><\/div>\n<h3>Sv\u011bt za Excelem<\/h3>\n<p>P\u0159i v\u00fdb\u011bru model\u016f m\u016f\u017eete j\u00edt klasickou cestou a&nbsp;zvolit pro \u010dasovou \u0159adu statistick\u00fd model. Statistick\u00e9 modely p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed trendy, sez\u00f3nnost, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b n\u011bjak\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed cykly, zkr\u00e1tka modely jedn\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady. Tyto modely se vyv\u00edjely a&nbsp;byly do&nbsp;nich p\u0159idan\u00e9 zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed a&nbsp;regrese, kter\u00e9 po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed s&nbsp;t\u00edm, \u017ee&nbsp;z\u00e1kazn\u00edci po ur\u010dit\u00e9m obdob\u00ed p\u0159estanou b\u00fdt aktivn\u00ed. Mezi tyto modely pat\u0159\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad ARIMA, exponenci\u00e1ln\u00ed vyhlazov\u00e1n\u00ed a&nbsp;zejm\u00e9na dekompozi\u010dn\u00ed modely.<\/p>\n<p>Machine learning posunul v\u00fdvoj model\u016f sm\u011brem k&nbsp;rozhodovac\u00edm strom\u016fm, kter\u00e9 na&nbsp;z\u00e1klad\u011b prediktor\u016f, regres\u00ed nebo charakteristik vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed segmenty. N\u00e1sledne v\u00e1m tyto modely p\u0159i\u0159ad\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00fd jeden bod do&nbsp;segmentu a&nbsp;modeluj\u00ed na&nbsp;z\u00e1klad\u011b chov\u00e1n\u00ed segmentu. Tyto modely nepracuj\u00ed s&nbsp;trendem samy o&nbsp;sob\u011b, proto je t\u0159eba trend p\u0159edem identifikovat a&nbsp;\u0159adu o&nbsp;n\u011bj o\u010distit. P\u0159\u00edkladem je <a href=\"https:\/\/lightgbm.readthedocs.io\/en\/stable\/\">LGBM<\/a> \u010di <a href=\"https:\/\/xgboost.readthedocs.io\/en\/stable\/\">XBoost<\/a> model.<\/p>\n<p>Neuronov\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b a&nbsp;generativn\u00ed AI ur\u010dit\u011b zn\u00e1te, ale v\u011bd\u011bli jste, \u017ee&nbsp;se tyto technologie zaslou\u017eily o&nbsp;velk\u00fd v\u00fdvoj na&nbsp;poli \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad? K&nbsp;dispozici je mnoho v\u00edce \u010di m\u00e9n\u011b slo\u017eit\u00fdch model\u016f, kter\u00e9 se odv\u00edj\u00ed od&nbsp;mno\u017estv\u00ed tr\u00e9novac\u00edch dat nebo parametr\u016f. Je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba st\u00e1le po\u010d\u00edtat s&nbsp;t\u00edm, \u017ee&nbsp;model m\u016f\u017ee trochu \u201culet\u011bt\u201d. M\u016f\u017eete se sezn\u00e1mit s&nbsp;modely jako je <a href=\"https:\/\/colah.github.io\/posts\/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs\/\">LSTM<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/ServiceNow\/N-BEATS\">N-Beats<\/a> \u010di <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/thuml\/TimesNet\">TimesNet<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>U statistick\u00fdch model\u016f je jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, zda predikce sed\u00ed, nebo nesed\u00ed a&nbsp;podstatu modelu lze sn\u00e1ze pochopit. Zp\u011btn\u00e1 vyhodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eitosti prediktor\u016f najdeme tak\u00e9 u&nbsp;rozhodovac\u00edch strom\u016f. U&nbsp;neuronov\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed se setk\u00e1v\u00e1me s&nbsp;blackboxem a&nbsp;objasn\u011bn\u00ed chov\u00e1n\u00ed modelu b\u00fdv\u00e1 zpravidla slo\u017eit\u00e9, v&nbsp;n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech a\u017e nemo\u017en\u00e9. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b v&nbsp;dne\u0161n\u00ed dob\u011b se \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l \u010dast\u011bji setk\u00e1v\u00e1me s&nbsp;dob\u0159e vysv\u011btliteln\u00fdmi modely, kter\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed o&nbsp;p\u0159ehlednost a&nbsp;jasn\u00e9 od\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bru, jak je tomu tak\u00e9 u&nbsp;statistick\u00fdch model\u016f nebo rozhodovac\u00edch strom\u016f.<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/prophet-ukazka.png\"><img srcset=\"https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/prophet-ukazka-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/prophet-ukazka-300x184.png 300w, https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/prophet-ukazka.png 606w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 300px) 606px, (min-width: 150px) 300px, 150px\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8118\" alt=\"prophet uk\u00e1zka\"><\/a>\n<h3>Jak si nastavit o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed?<\/h3>\n<p>M\u00e1te za sebou prvn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pilot a&nbsp;z\u00edskali jste n\u011bjak\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla. Jak si ale zkontrolujete, \u017ee&nbsp;je v\u00e1\u0161 v\u00fdsledek sm\u011brodatn\u00fd a&nbsp;ne jen d\u00edlo n\u00e1hody?<\/p>\n<p>Nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed je tzv. fale\u0161n\u00e1 predikce, tedy kontrola modelu na&nbsp;historick\u00fdch datech. P\u0159edstavte si, \u017ee&nbsp;je z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed a&nbsp;vy zkou\u0161\u00edte \u201cpredikovat\u201d srpen. Do&nbsp;modelu tak vlo\u017e\u00edte data do&nbsp;\u010dervence a&nbsp;zad\u00e1te vytvo\u0159en\u00ed odhadu na&nbsp;n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc. V\u00fdsledn\u00e9 predikce pot\u00e9 porovn\u00e1te s&nbsp;re\u00e1ln\u00fdmi \u010d\u00edsly. Byla predikce bl\u00edzko realit\u011b, nebo se naopak v\u00fdrazn\u011b li\u0161ila?<\/p>\n<p>Kdy\u017e si lad\u00edte modely, zahr\u0148te do&nbsp;nich zn\u00e1m\u00e9 prediktory. Nap\u0159\u00edklad pokud na&nbsp;konci \u010dervence v\u00edte, \u017ee&nbsp;v&nbsp;srpnu pl\u00e1nujete akci nebo je v&nbsp;m\u011bs\u00edci speci\u00e1ln\u00ed sv\u00e1tek \/ v\u00edkend, nesm\u00edte tyto prediktory opomenout. Na&nbsp;druhou stranu, pokud va\u0161e konkurence po\u0159\u00e1dala v&nbsp;ur\u010dit\u00e9m m\u011bs\u00edci akci a&nbsp;vy jste o&nbsp;n\u00ed p\u0159edem nev\u011bd\u011bli, tak ji jako prediktor rozhodn\u011b nezahrnujte.<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159i v\u00fdb\u011bru benchmarku je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 v\u011bd\u011bt, jak moc variabiln\u00ed jsou data, se kter\u00fdmi pracujete. Variabilitu dat si m\u016f\u017eete stanovit pomoc\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 absolutn\u00ed procentn\u00ed odchylky. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee&nbsp;kdy\u017e m\u00e1te pr\u016fm\u011brnou hodnotu 100 a&nbsp;10% pr\u016fm\u011brnou absolutn\u00ed procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed odchylku, va\u0161e data se pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b pohybuj\u00ed mezi hodnotami 90 a&nbsp;110.<\/p>\n<p>Jako jeden z&nbsp;c\u00edl\u016f predikce si m\u016f\u017eete nastavit sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed t\u00e9to odchylky na&nbsp;polovinu. V&nbsp;tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee&nbsp;va\u0161e data se budou pohybovat mezi hodnotami 95 a&nbsp;105. Pokud se se svoj\u00ed predikc\u00ed dostanete do&nbsp;poloviny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 odchylky, m\u016f\u017eete predikci pova\u017eovat za \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou a&nbsp;ne jen za v\u00fdsledek n\u00e1hody. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u010d\u00edm men\u0161\u00ed variability se v\u00e1m poda\u0159\u00ed va\u0161imi predikcemi dos\u00e1hnout, t\u00edm l\u00e9pe (ide\u00e1ln\u011b se p\u0159ibli\u017eujete nule). Av\u0161ak nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 na&nbsp;nulu c\u00edlit. S&nbsp;ur\u010ditou jistotou nikdo z&nbsp;n\u00e1s nev\u00ed, co se stane, jedn\u00e1 se o&nbsp;expertn\u00ed odhad. Proto nezapom\u00ednejte na&nbsp;kontrolu skute\u010dn\u00e9 odchylky. Jak moc va\u0161e data re\u00e1ln\u011b variuj\u00ed, nach\u00e1z\u00edte se tam, kde jste cht\u011bli b\u00fdt a&nbsp;sed\u00ed v\u00e1m i&nbsp;predikce?<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159i stanoven\u00ed odchylky je pot\u0159eba se \u0159\u00eddit vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi vlivy a&nbsp;intern\u00edmi sm\u011brnicemi, pokud n\u011bjak\u00e9 m\u00e1te. Velikost odchylky se odv\u00edj\u00ed od&nbsp;trhu, ve&nbsp;kter\u00e9m se pohybujete. Ve&nbsp;finan\u010dnictv\u00ed to v&nbsp;n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech b\u00fdv\u00e1 kolem 1&nbsp;%, u&nbsp;e-commerce se budeme \u010dasto pohybovat u&nbsp;10&nbsp;% a&nbsp;u&nbsp;startup\u016f \u010di agresivn\u011b rostouc\u00edch firem m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt odchylka daleko v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Mus\u00edme tak\u00e9 zv\u00e1\u017eit, zda je pro n\u00e1s nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed situace, kdy model nadhodnocuje, nebo podhodnocuje. Pokud je pro n\u00e1s jedna ze situac\u00ed hor\u0161\u00ed, je dobr\u00e9 model zk\u0159ivit t\u00edmto sm\u011brem. Tedy pokud pova\u017eujeme za&nbsp; nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed nadhodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed modelu, m\u016f\u017eeme se sna\u017eit o&nbsp;odchylku v&nbsp;rozmez\u00ed 90 a&nbsp;102 oproti procentu\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu rozmez\u00ed 95&nbsp;a&nbsp;105.<\/p>\n<p>Krom\u011b absolutn\u00ed procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed odchylky je dobr\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edt jako benchmark line\u00e1rn\u00ed regresi - \u00fapln\u011b jednoduch\u00fd model, kter\u00fd ale d\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b dobr\u00e9 v\u00fdstupy.<\/p>\n<h3>P\u0159edv\u00eddatelnost modelu a&nbsp;v\u00fdhody line\u00e1rn\u00ed regrese<\/h3>\n<p>\u010c\u00edm jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed model, t\u00edm men\u0161\u00ed \u0161ance, \u017ee&nbsp;n\u00e1s v&nbsp;pr\u016fb\u011bhu n\u011b\u010d\u00edm p\u0159ekvap\u00ed - t\u0159eba t\u00edm, \u017ee&nbsp;ze dne na&nbsp;den uprav\u00ed odhad o&nbsp;20&nbsp;%.<\/p>\n<p>Vzhledem ke&nbsp;sv\u00e9 podstat\u011b, line\u00e1rn\u00ed regrese v\u00e1m ze stejn\u00fdch dat d\u00e1 v\u017edy stejn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek. U&nbsp;\u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad a&nbsp;rozhodovac\u00edch strom\u016f u\u017e k&nbsp;n\u011bjak\u00e9 pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 variabilit\u011b m\u016f\u017ee doch\u00e1zet, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je pak u&nbsp;t\u011bch zalo\u017een\u00fdch na&nbsp;neuronov\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00edch. Variabilita v&nbsp;r\u00e1mci p\u0159edem definovan\u00fdch hranic m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed t\u011bchto model\u016f, tak\u017ee v\u00e1m ze stejn\u00fdch dat nemus\u00ed vyj\u00edt stejn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky. Pokud se jim nap\u0159\u00edklad dostane v\u00edce vizibility, variabilita m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e byste cht\u011bli. Line\u00e1rn\u00ed regrese v\u00e1m tak m\u016f\u017ee pomoci identifikovat slab\u00e1 m\u00edsta modelu a&nbsp;dr\u017eet v\u00e1s v&nbsp;r\u00e1mci realisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edch predikc\u00ed.<\/p>\n<h3>Jak si p\u0159ipravit prost\u0159ed\u00ed na&nbsp;b\u011bh modelu?<\/h3>\n<p>U v\u00fdb\u011bru modelu z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed i&nbsp;na&nbsp;technick\u00e9 schopnosti lidsk\u00e9ho faktoru. Komplexn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed modely se nej\u010dast\u011bji spou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed pomoc\u00ed programovac\u00edch jazyk\u016f R&nbsp;nebo Python. Existuj\u00ed v\u0161ak modely, kter\u00e9 jsou user-friendly a&nbsp;po napojen\u00ed dat b\u011b\u017e\u00ed na&nbsp;pozad\u00ed baterie model\u016f. D\u00edky \u00favodn\u00edmu nastaven\u00ed v\u00e1m pom\u016f\u017eou bez v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho z\u00e1sahu z&nbsp;va\u0161\u00ed strany. Tady je pak na&nbsp;m\u00edst\u011b polo\u017eit si ot\u00e1zku, zda v\u00e1m d\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed smysl investovat do&nbsp;toolu, nebo chcete model na&nbsp;m\u00edru a&nbsp;investujete rad\u011bji do&nbsp;dodavatele slu\u017eby, \u010di vlastn\u00edho t\u00fdmu.<\/p>\n<p>Pro vyzkou\u0161en\u00ed modelov\u00e1n\u00ed doporu\u010dujeme:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/facebook.github.io\/prophet\/\">Prophet<\/a> - predik\u010dn\u00ed model od&nbsp;Facebooku, u\u017e se d\u00e1le nerozv\u00edj\u00ed, ale je st\u00e1le br\u00e1n jako zlat\u00fd standard<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/linkedin\/greykite\">Greykite<\/a> - predik\u010dn\u00ed model od&nbsp;LinkedInu, oproti Prophetovi umo\u017e\u0148uje v\u00edce \u00faprav a&nbsp;nastavov\u00e1n\u00ed, na&nbsp;druhou stranu je daleko m\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159\u00edv\u011btiv\u00fd pro za\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edky<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Jeden model vl\u00e1dne v\u0161em?<\/h3>\n<p>D\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl p\u0159ipravit jeden komplexn\u00ed model, nebo sp\u00ed\u0161e pou\u017e\u00edt v\u00edc mal\u00fdch model\u016f?<\/p>\n<p>U komplexn\u00edho modelu v\u017edy hroz\u00ed velk\u00e9 riziko. Z&nbsp;n\u011bkolikam\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpravy jednoho velk\u00e9ho modelu se m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t \u010dern\u00e1 d\u00edra, kter\u00e1 pohlt\u00ed kvantum \u010dasu a&nbsp;pen\u011bz, z&nbsp;kter\u00e9 nakonec nic nevzejde, proto\u017ee model statisticky ned\u011bl\u00e1, co by m\u011bl nebo by fin\u00e1ln\u00ed proveden\u00ed bylo p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 technicky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Mal\u00e9 modely nab\u00edz\u00ed relativn\u00ed \u010dasovou nen\u00e1ro\u010dnost, rychl\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky, p\u0159\u00edstupnost a&nbsp;mo\u017enost propojen\u00ed v\u00edce model\u016f.<\/p>\n<h3>Co automatizovat?<\/h3>\n<p>Automatizace p\u0159i predikc\u00edch se d\u00e1 prov\u00e9st ve&nbsp;t\u0159ech \u00farovn\u00edch:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>sb\u011br dat a&nbsp;jejich transformace,<\/li>\n<li>reporting,<\/li>\n<li>spou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed modelu.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed d\u016fraz bychom m\u011bli kl\u00e1st na&nbsp;prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st. M\u016f\u017eete m\u00edt ve&nbsp;sv\u00e9m kout\u011b nejlep\u0161\u00ed technickou podporu, za sebou hodiny pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed, ale pokud m\u00e1te \u0161patn\u00e1 data, v\u0161echny predikce jsou bezcenn\u00e9. Data k&nbsp;v\u00e1m mohou proudit z&nbsp;n\u011bkolika zdroj\u016f v&nbsp;r\u016fzn\u00e9 f\u00e1zi p\u0159ipravenosti: data warehouse, ERP, Google Analytics, Google Sheets, n\u011bkdo v\u00e1m m\u016f\u017ee informace nadiktovat, poslat mail, sd\u00edlet excelovskou tabulku\u2026 mo\u017enosti jsou nekone\u010dn\u00e9. Zautomatizov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti v\u00e1m mnohokr\u00e1t u\u0161et\u0159\u00ed hodiny \u010dasu a&nbsp;zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed to p\u0159ehlednost v&nbsp;datech, kter\u00e1 sb\u00edr\u00e1te. Dobr\u00e1 data jsou (nejen) pro predikce alfou a&nbsp;omegou.<\/p>\n<p>Reporting je druh\u00fd krok procesu, kter\u00fd se vyplat\u00ed automatizovat. Kdy\u017e u\u017e model n\u011bco odpredikuje a&nbsp;je to v&nbsp;Excelu nebo n\u011bjak\u00e9 datab\u00e1zi,je p\u0159\u00ednosn\u00e9 m\u00edt seznam zainteresovan\u00fdch osob, kter\u00fdm se tyto v\u00fdsledky automaticky ode\u0161lou. P\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b m\u016f\u017eete m\u00edt jedno m\u00edsto, kam se mohou v\u0161ichni pod\u00edvat.<\/p>\n<p>Posledn\u00ed krok v&nbsp;automatizaci je samotn\u00e9 spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed modelu. Mnohokr\u00e1t je to prvn\u00ed v\u011bc, kterou se rozhodneme automatizovat, ale to by byla chyba. V\u011bt\u0161inu model\u016f nepot\u0159ebujeme spou\u0161t\u011bt ka\u017edou hodinu, sta\u010d\u00ed n\u00e1m \u010dasto t\u00fddenn\u00ed frekvence. P\u0159i spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed modelu m\u016f\u017eeme ov\u011b\u0159it i&nbsp;to, \u017ee&nbsp;se v\u0161e chov\u00e1, jak m\u00e1. Modelov\u00e1n\u00ed zahrnuje spoustu \u00favah a&nbsp;st\u00e1l\u00e9 komunikace, kter\u00e9 je pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 do&nbsp;predikc\u00ed p\u0159etavit. Automatizace spou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed predikce je kulminac\u00ed dlouh\u00e9 f\u00e1ze v\u00fdvoje, b\u011bhem kter\u00e9 se model vycizeluje a&nbsp;up\u0159esn\u00ed. Vyjas\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed ani komunikace p\u0159ed ka\u017ed\u00fdm spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm u\u017e nebudou pot\u0159eba.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Pro shrnut\u00ed, jak\u00fd je tedy za n\u00e1s u&nbsp;predikc\u00ed v&nbsp;marketingu rozumn\u00fd postup?<br>\nIntuitivn\u00ed predikce v&nbsp;Excelu -&gt; jednoduch\u00e9 modely (line\u00e1rn\u00ed regrese apod.) -&gt; modely zalo\u017een\u00e9 na&nbsp;\u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad\u00e1ch \/ rozhodovac\u00ed stromy -&gt; postupn\u00e9 lad\u011bn\u00ed model\u016f.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Pokud hled\u00e1te inspiraci na&nbsp;co predikce v\u016fbec pou\u017e\u00edt, tak Adam se o&nbsp;p\u00e1r p\u0159\u00edkladech <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/3-1-p%C5%99%C3%ADklady-vyu%C5%BEit%C3%AD-predikc%C3%AD-v-marketingu-adam-%C5%A1ilhan-yqcfe\/\">rozepsal na&nbsp;LinkedInu<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_8117\" style=\"width: 1034px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/webinar-zaver.png\"><img srcset=\"https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/webinar-zaver-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/webinar-zaver-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/igloonet.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/webinar-zaver-1024x576.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 300px) 1024px, (min-width: 150px) 300px, 150px\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8117\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8117\" alt=\"Webin\u00e1\u0159 - Predikce v marketingu - Adam a Lucie\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\"><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-8117\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Webin\u00e1\u0159 - Predikce v&nbsp;marketingu - Adam a&nbsp;Lucie<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Douf\u00e1me, \u017ee&nbsp;jste si n\u00e1\u0161 prvn\u00ed webin\u00e1\u0159 u\u017eili a&nbsp;tak\u00e9 si z&nbsp;n\u011bj n\u011bco odnesli. D\u011bkujeme Lucii Pezlarov\u00e9 za jej\u00ed \u010das a&nbsp;ochotu sd\u00edlet sv\u00e9 znalosti s&nbsp;n\u00e1mi a&nbsp;na\u0161\u00edm publikem. <a href=\"https:\/\/forms.gle\/nMy1cVF85reMiSVJ7\">M\u011bjte o\u010di na&nbsp;stopk\u00e1ch, s\u00e9rie webin\u00e1\u0159\u016f bude pokra\u010dovat - registrujte se na&nbsp;dal\u0161\u00ed.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Se z\u00e1\u0159\u00edm jsme se rozlou\u010dili ve&nbsp;velk\u00e9m stylu - na\u0161\u00edm prvn\u00edm webin\u00e1\u0159em! Lucie Pezlarov\u00e1, senior data scientist z&nbsp;Notina, spolu s&nbsp;na\u0161\u00edm Adamem \u0160ilhanem rozeb\u00edrali t\u00e9ma predikc\u00ed v&nbsp;marketingu. Vysv\u011btlili, jak s&nbsp;nimi pracovat, jak si nastavit o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a&nbsp;kdy je vhodn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti procesu predikce zautomatizovat. Pokud v\u00e1s toto t\u00e9ma zaj\u00edm\u00e1, m\u016f\u017eete si d\u00edky Czech Online Expo p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst hlavn\u00ed v\u00fdstupy z&nbsp;na\u0161eho webin\u00e1\u0159e.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":8488,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[370],"tags":[74,340,432,485,367],"class_list":["post-8104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytika","tag-analytika","tag-data","tag-data-driven","tag-webinare","tag-webova-analytika"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Predikce v marketingu - jak pracovat s forecastingem | igloonet blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Se z\u00e1\u0159\u00edm jsme se rozlou\u010dili ve velk\u00e9m stylu - na\u0161\u00edm prvn\u00edm webin\u00e1\u0159em! 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